A couple interludes to welcome the New Year….
Recap of how 2008 felt for most people
Welcome to 2009 a.k.a. The Jungle…
(Not safe for work)
ISYN expects a very strong showing for the equity markets in 2009… I wish those of you who have survived 2008 nothing but the best for 2009!!!!
Also, I’ve been invited to become a contributor on RealMoney.com. I expect to start doing so within a week or two so you can catch some ideas, etc. over there with a subscription.
Prior to making any investment/trading decisions be sure to do your own research. Assume I’m biased via direct or indirect ownership in all ideas mentioned.
A couple points:
These are some very basic, logic-based points of analysis. Sometimes simplicity serves an analysis best - I believe this is one of those times.
DIG has apparently found some support on a weekly basis in the mid-twenties.
********ISYN is now a proponent of DXO – for any long oil plays I would use this instead.********
Here’s a review of the trade idea I had posted last week. It looked like a triple bottom/inverse H&S pattern and as such I thought a long position may be in order… I was wrong in a big way as the GBP/USD has since declined to 1.4463. Seems to me that support has been broken.
Please click HERE to read the PDF file.
A buddy at FMR sent this over to me this AM. This is PC to the extreme…
Best wishes for an environmentally conscious, socially responsible, low stress, non-addictive, gender neutral celebration of the winter solstice holiday, practiced with the most enjoyable traditions of religious persuasion or secular practices of your choice with respect for the religious/secular persuasions and/or traditions of others, or their choice not to practice religious or secular traditions at all.
I also wish you a fiscally successful, personally fulfilling and medically uncomplicated recognition of the onset of the generally accepted calendar year of 2009, but not without due respect for the calendars of choice of other cultures whose contributions to society have helped make our country great (not to imply that the USA is necessarily greater than any other country) and without regard the race, creed, color, age, physical ability, religious faith or sexual preference of the wishee.
By accepting this greeting, you are accepting these terms:
This greeting is subject to clarification or withdrawal. It is freely transferable with no alteration to the original greeting.
It implies no promise by the wisher to actually implement any of the wishes for her/him or others and is void where prohibited by law, and is revocable at the sole discretion of the wisher. The wish is warranted to perform as expected within the usual application of good tidings for a period of one year or until the issuance of a subsequent holiday greeting, whichever comes first, and warranty is limited to replacement of this wish or issuance of a new wish at the sole discretion of the wisher.
The best of the holidays to everyone,
Do your own research prior to placing any trades and/or investments. Assume all posts here are biased through direct and/or indirect ownership.
I don’t normally look at currencies but this little doozy caught my attention today. From ISYN’s perspective this is a strictly technical trade which is not necessarily a great reason to initiate a position. The GBP/USD seems to be sporting the makings of a triple bottom / inverse head and shoulders using the daily time frame. May be worth going long here.
And a closer view with trendlines shows the pair has broken the 3-and 4-month resistance lines while possibly setting up a postive-trending channel… while I don’t put much stock into pure technical analysis I do see the value of reading charts to gauge sentiment flows (I’ll discuss my views on this in a later post). Obviously the GBP has found some support in the 1.47 range, if only on a temporary basis. The benefit of this particular opportunity is that you’ll have a fairly strong idea of whether you’re correct or otherwise rather quickly as the market’s support is clearly delineated.
I think we could all use a little bullish encore…
In your fight against/with the market in 2008 were you Russian or Irish?
Don’t call it a comeback….
Been away for a while on vacation and since this site is a hobby and I earn zero money from it I thought I’d take a break from it as well. I’ve been watching this particular trade for a few weeks now and have discussed it with some friends who are in agreement – Treasuries are in full fear mode and will need to come back in. There’s two ways to play this via ETFs (TBT and TLT). See the charts below.
As always do your own research prior to investing in anything. Also always assume these posts are biased through direct and/or indirect ownership in the securities mentioned.
TLT has risen approximately 11% in 5 trading sessions. This ETF moves with the US long bonds. One potential trade is to short TLT which looks visually overextended. Some view the T-notes and bonds as a gauge of fear as their yields decline when fear rises causing a flight to quality, which we see here.
TLT
The second potential trade is to go long TBT which is an inverse ETF on the US long bonds.
TBT
Going with the prior post HERE regarding the World index and ISYN’s forecast for the remainder of 2008, this is a follow up on ISYN’s S&P 500 forecast which can be found reproduced below this posting…
Here’s a couple charts of the VIX & S&P 500.
Looks like we’re going to have some downside here for a little while – until we hit the 800-825 range which coincidentally we’re about 16 points away from right now. ISYN fully expects a very strong rally in December once we sell off to-or-near those lows again. I still stand by what I wrote on the world index posting and the posting below. Don’t fall in love with a trend or that love will blind you to its inevitable end.
__________________________________________________________________
FROM NOVEMBER 19th
The bears are coming up on some serious PAYBACK…
As admitted before, I was early on my bullish call by 10% or so. Even so I’m more bullish now than I’ve ever been. While I know it’s rare to see this I won’t change my forecast simply because it’s gotten to the point where it’s easier to do so. I made the bullish forecast statement and with an open mind I stand firm. There has been nothing new that would justify a change of my view. I’m going to lay out the reasoning in support of my decision again and as often as I have to to reaffirm my views.
While there’s plenty of trouble for the economy going forward I don’t see it causing the detriment of the financial markets. The main risks I see are the government screwing up or a Black Swan event. Other than that ISYN believes the game is about to be played and if you’re on the bench looking at the grass or the girls you’re going to miss some of the victory.
VIX
S&P 500
After discussing potential outcomes with a friend/animal trader I believe what you see in blue will happen through the conclusion of 2008 for this world index. Let’s face it – this game seems to be all about where the most risk lies and right now I suspect there’s more upside risk than downside. That being said there’s the chance of military conflicts in India/Pakistan as well as dozens of other potentially serious events which, if any occurred, would cause this playbook to go right out the window. Enjoy.
The bears should enjoy this sell off but don’t be too complacent… the bulls are just down the river loading up their choppers, ramping up to finish the year off strong.
