ishortyounot

Archive for May 2009

Risk/Reward Play

In Individual Stocks on May 13, 2009 at 11:15 am

Do your own research prior to making any investment/trading decisions.

This is a swing trade with a 4-8 week time frame based solely on a technical setup. In this particular case I’ve chosen to ignore the fundamentals (at my own peril, perhaps).

PSMT – The chart below shows significant resistance in the $15 – $16 range. There are  four periods worthy of note with each marked by a circle. The initial two represent resistance. PSMT then broke out  to the upside on increasing volume (great thing to see/be a part of). The resistance points  then became support. January and early March saw the testing of this support hold strong which is exactly what one wants to see when using support/resistance. Since the breakout PSMT has been trading in two ranges: $15 – $19 and $15 – $21. As it stands now the name is coming back down to retest support. Adding to the mix is a head-and-shoulders setup taking place from March to May.

In my opinion this provides for a buyer to initiate a position in this name in the low-$15s with a target of $19 and a stop loss/exit point of $14.50. Assuming a conservative entry of $15.50 this yields an expected reward of $3.50 with anticipated risk of $1.00. What’s great about this situation is that if your long position is proven incorrect you can play the shortside head-and-shoulders confirmation.

PSMT

 

As always, enjoy the interludes…

 

Range Opportunity

In Individual Stocks on May 12, 2009 at 5:15 pm

Do your own research prior to making any investment/trading decisions.

GILD is offering a nice range trade. Look for stop placement around 43.25 and take profits around 47.75. While the potential reward is less than amazing this opportunity may provide some respectable short term profit while providing for relatively limited normal downside risk. If you’re looking to build a position in GILD for the long term this is a great opportunity as well. You’ll know if you’re idea is wrong somewhat quickly based on the direction of GILD’s eventual breakout/breakdown from this range.

GILD

Short Idea

In Individual Stocks on May 6, 2009 at 12:21 pm

dinAs always do your own research prior to making any investment/trading decisions.

Check out the chart below. This is a solid shorting opportunity in my opinion.

 

***5/8/09 update***

The business proposal has been sidelined for the time being. I’m going to focus on working as a desk analyst/trader which is what I was doing until February.

Prepare For a Pullback

In Market Movement on May 4, 2009 at 12:47 pm

The S&P 500 has risen approximately 33% over the past two months. You should be protecting your portfolios from a pullback. I’m looking at TZA/BGZ which are ETFs focused on 3x the daily inverse of small cap and large cap stocks (respectively).

S&P 500

S&P 500