I neglected to mention this as part of my previous post. One of the core reasons I’m bullish in the face of the 2-3 month rally/consolidation period is because there remains a minority of market participants who trust in the rally/bullish recovery. This is one of the best indicators out there and it’s only available by immersing yourself in current events in the markets and infusing intuition. Barring an unforeseen event such as North Korea doing some real damage, I expect we hold the 875 – 880 level on the S&P.
As always you have to remain willing to adapt if conditions change.
In an interview the other day I was reminded of this speech. Well worth the time.
UNC capped off their great win this past Monday night and due to such ISYN won $4,o00 in cold, hard cash for a 2nd place finish and a $25 investment!!! That’s almost a 16,000% ROI in one month! I highly recommend everyone joining next year’s competition…check out THIS WEBSITE to find out how it works… and no, I don’t receive any money for referring you. As a side note, 1st place won $10,000!
Finally putting the finishing touches on the packet I’ll be sending out to raise capital in the ‘Friends & Family’ round of financing. This is in reference to the recommendation I made HERE to go out on a limb and start your own business, whether full time or part. I figured it might be prudent to walk what I talk, eh? If I’m unable to raise the necessary funds I will be headed back into the corporate world. If and when I am able – so begins the self-employed life.
Following is a sharply abbreviated list of my top picks for the next few years. My expectations of forward macro trends has continued to lead me to these names for several months. A man who understands whether the tide is coming or going will never be stranded. It is always best to grasp the bigger picture while focusing on what’s in front of you. Do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
TBT
This is an inflation hedge – it shorts some of the longer US Treasury paper.
Inflation rises, yields rise, Treasury prices decline, TBT rises.
This is my number one must-have.
MPEL
Macau-based gaming. Current focus on
high-rollers segment while expanding
into regular segment.
FXC
Long Canadian Loonie.
Different inflation hedge.
Don’t forget, there’s always a bull market somewhere.
And how could I leave you without another interlude?
Get out there and put your money (if you have any left) to work. If you closed down your hedge fund because 2008 kicked your ass go start another one – give it 6 months and you’ll look like a genius. There’s still a ton of dough on the sidelines.
I’m talking commodities (platinum and oil) and high quality stocks (solid quick ratios in non-financial companies). Buy some real estate but stick to the fundamentals – location: where populations are rising and the school systems are SOLID. Short the sh*t out of Treasuries as steep inflation is all but a guarantee at this point.
Finally – the time of small but fast companies beating out the larger, less nimble ones has come upon us – we were founded as a nation of business owners, not employees, and the intelligent are headed back in that direction. Go start your own business in your spare time – use that gift between your ears to put some financial dignity back into your own hands. Doesn’t matter if it fails – keep at it and innovate/think/brainstorm/try until you get it right. I’m starting up a project right now – you should consider doing so too.
As long as another man signs your paycheck you’ll be a slave. If you don’t try you’ve got nobody but yourself to blame for where you end up/are.
Go out and GET SOME!!!!!!!
-ISYN
(I’ll keep you updated on my progress as I consider entrepreneurship to be an important part of investing/trading/securing one’s financial future)
ISYN is back. Here’s the new site structure – look for opportunities in the FX, commodity, and equity markets.
My goal is to show you potential trade and investment ideas that offer great risk/reward profiles. If you have something to say, toss it in the comments or email me at SchraderTrader@gmail.com. As always do your own research prior to participating in any of these opportunities.
ISYN expects a very strong showing for the equity markets in 2009… I wish those of you who have survived 2008 nothing but the best for 2009!!!!
Also, I’ve been invited to become a contributor on RealMoney.com. I expect to start doing so within a week or two so you can catch some ideas, etc. over there with a subscription.
A buddy at FMR sent this over to me this AM. This is PC to the extreme…
Best wishes for an environmentally conscious, socially responsible, low stress, non-addictive, gender neutral celebration of the winter solstice holiday, practiced with the most enjoyable traditions of religious persuasion or secular practices of your choice with respect for the religious/secular persuasions and/or traditions of others, or their choice not to practice religious or secular traditions at all.
I also wish you a fiscally successful, personally fulfilling and medically uncomplicated recognition of the onset of the generally accepted calendar year of 2009, but not without due respect for the calendars of choice of other cultures whose contributions to society have helped make our country great (not to imply that the USA is necessarily greater than any other country) and without regard the race, creed, color, age, physical ability, religious faith or sexual preference of the wishee.
By accepting this greeting, you are accepting these terms:
This greeting is subject to clarification or withdrawal. It is freely transferable with no alteration to the original greeting.
It implies no promise by the wisher to actually implement any of the wishes for her/him or others and is void where prohibited by law, and is revocable at the sole discretion of the wisher. The wish is warranted to perform as expected within the usual application of good tidings for a period of one year or until the issuance of a subsequent holiday greeting, whichever comes first, and warranty is limited to replacement of this wish or issuance of a new wish at the sole discretion of the wisher.
The best of the holidays to everyone,
There’s just something about the way she drops 500 points in a day….mm mm mmm and still I’m bullish.
ISYN is still on board for the rally through Thanksgiving. While it’s difficult to do so one needs to be convicted in their belief/projection while maintaining a completely open mind…otherwise you’ll end up spending your investment life chasing a wave instead of riding it. One of the key lessons I’ve learned is to check your ego at the door because there’s no room for it in the marketplace. The phrase “he who exalts himself shall be humbled” rings true. I’m not claiming I can predict with any certainty the direction of the market but I use what tools/signals are available at the time to make an educated guesstimate of market sentiment and the flow of that sentiment. ISYN is bullish right now but it only takes one kink in a hose to shut off the water flow – thus a bullish rally may also be turned off.
Employment numbers on Friday should cause a big fluctuation up or down so it may be a good idea to throw in a minor/major hedge if you’re long or short.
As a heads up November is going to be a light month of posting due to the rapidly-approaching CFA exam. ISYN has to get his study on in a serious way. I’ll be posting intermittently and will come up with a few ideas here and there. In the meantime enjoy the interludes and check out IBankCoin.com and DealBreaker.com.
After enjoying the uplifting video above, recognize and take heart in the following chart. It’s the S&P 500 for the past decade on a monthly candlestick basis. If the month were to close right now we would have lost a little in excess of 20% in a single month. This has happened very few times in the past.
The following data is from AllFinancialMatters.com
The worst month ever was a 29% drop in September of 1931. The worst October decline was 21.5% in 1987 when the stock market crashed.
Considering this information I believe we can be confident we will not be setting a new worst record. The U.S. was much worse off in 1931 and throughout the Great Depression than it is now. Unemployment has remained relatively low and GDP growth (although these statistics are always tainted and inaccurate in my opinion) has not registered a severe decline just yet – although the market seems to be pricing one in. As I type the S&P 500 has just broke through 900 to the downside. Chin up – while the market may suffer a bit more I expect we rally into the end of October. Click HERE to read ISYN’s reasoning behind this belief.
-ISYN
UPDATE
Triple bottom in place on S&P 500 – If it holds the line tomorrow….. RIDE THAT RALLY BABY!!!
I Short You Not is a blog focused on three things:
1- Keeping its readers up-to-date with insight on current events which have an impact on the world markets/economies.
2- Having some fun with an otherwise dry subject matter.
3- Helping readers educate themselves on stock market analysis and the thought process used ... Continue reading »
