This is a follow up to a previous post… I believe with the recently increased readership here at ISYN that this list may help you help yourself become a better trader, investor, and person.

I’m able to recommend every book below because I’ve read them. If you don’t read, you should… every new book I read puts me more on top of my game.

Market-Focused Books

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
written by: Edwin Lefevre

Trader Vic II
written by: Victor Sperandeo

Market Wizards
written by: Jack Schwager

New Market Wizards
written by: Jack Schwager

Trading For A Living
written by: Alexander Elder

Liar’s Poker
written by: Michael Lewis

Confessions of a Street Addict
written by: James Cramer

Other-Focused Books

How To Win Friends & Influence People
written by: Dale Carnegie

Acres of Diamonds
written by: Russell Conwell

Ten Things I Learned From Bill Porter
written by: Shelly Brady

Think & Grow Rich
written by: Napoleon Hill

Wild At Heart
written by: John Eldredge

Interludes….

Boondock Saints II is out! Go see it

Thanks to JP for the introduction to this song.

And I know this is older but it’s a hell of a video…

And finally… Chris Elliot as the caretaker in Scary Movie.

Do your own research prior to making any investment/trading decisions. Do not make any decisions based solely on the information presented below. Always assume I am biased with the information presented. I am currently long NUHC (10/14/2009).

This particular idea is not new. However I wanted to present it in a proper way, as per my previous post.

NUHC – Nu Horizons Electronics Corp

Reco: Long                Target: $6.96+           Date Recommended: 10/13/2009

DESCRIPTION
NUHC distributes high technology active and passive components (memory chips, microprocessors, consumer electronics, etc).

THE STORY

NUHC represents a solid reward/risk opportunity on both a fundamental and a technical level. From a fundamental standpoint the core reasoning for this trade is the closing of the spread between the book value and the market valuation. The current market price of $4.07 per share represents an approximate 47% discount to Book Value ($7.79). Digging further, if we take the Current Assets and subtract the Total Liabilities we end up with a net valuation of $129.2mm ($6.96 per share) which is a 70%+ premium to the current market capitalization of $75mm ($4.07 per share).

Quarterly cash burn is of minimal concern at the current time due to the fact that the company has enjoyed positive free cash flow for each of the previous five quarters, albeit on a nominal level. EBITDA over the trailing twelve month period totaled $(1.86)mm.

In terms of liquidity, NUHC has access to a total of approximately $150mm through various lines of credit, the bulk of which expires in 2011. To date, they have drawn approximately $22.5mm of this total. If they decide to draw a significant portion of this I would have cause to rethink my recommendation. However at the moment I remain confident that they will not require a substantial capital infusion.

EXPECTATION
 I expect the market to bring NUHC’s valuation into harmony with Book Value. If the economic recovery is real and this company is able to regain profitability then we could easily see a price-to-Book multiple in excess of 1. However the primary reasoning for this play is to see it ‘back to book’. With institutional investors representing approximately 44% of the ownership and a fairly illiquid trading pattern, I have determined my profit target to be in the $6.80 – $7.00 range to account for possible selling pressure as it approaches Book value.

RECENT HEADLINES (June 2009 to October 2009)

x. Q2 2010 Earnings
Net sales for the quarter ended August 31, 2009 were $156.6mm compared to $211.8mm last year. Net income was $0.03 per diluted share as opposed to $0.01 the year prior. However this figure includes $0.07 per share of income tax benefit so the actual results showed a loss of $0.04 per share. On a sequential basis, sales rose 6.0% QOQ with North America ($9.9mm increase; 11.9%) and Asia ($2mm increase; 4.4%) overpowering the decline in Europe ($3.1mm; -16.3%). The primary takeaways here are the QOQ growth in revenue in North America and Asia.

x. NUHC signs on to become Master Distributor for Alcatel-Lucent

x. Conexant names NUHC as exclusive distributor in North America

x. NUHC announces departure of President/CEO

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NUHC was in a strong downtrend from mid-2007 to December 2008 where it bottomed. Since then it has steadily risen until hitting up against ~$4.00. This level has shown itself to be significant resistance to further advancement. While $4.00 has provided steady resistance since June of this year, the support line has been trending upward from $3.00 to its current level of $4.00+, forming an ascending triangle. On the recent earnings announcement the ~$4.00 resistance was broken in a significant way ($4.10+ on a close). I suspect this NUHC gravitate toward $7.00 rather quickly, which is the most recent significant historical level of resistance and support. The great thing about this particular situation is that the fundamentals support the projected move the technicals are showing. This isn’t always the case.

And for your enjoyment/to welcome myself to NYC…

I have shown an impressive lack of effort in regard to the quality of this website and the information contained within. The former isn’t going to change because it’s still a hobby but the latter will change starting with my next post. Prior to now I have mainly posted the idea without any form of supporting argument. All the analysis I perform on my own is not presented and there was a reason for that – I expect everyone should do their own research and not make decisions based on someone else’s thoughts or expectations. That being said, I believe it would be more beneficial to you if I included some of my analysis going forward.

You may expect more from me going forward.

-ISYN

Spend a little time welcoming Fall into the picture with Cannonball….

Do your own research prior to making any investment/trading decisions. Always assume I am biased in the ideas presented.

CNX

Showed weakness today in market other names are driving forward in. This follows significant runup in past ten days. Ripe for further downside if market shows any weakness, which I expect it to.

JOYG

I would short around $49 – $50 unless it shows weakness tomorrow and can’t make it that high, in which case I’d short tomorrow.

In honor of the hockey season starting up again and the hardest time of the year for the market I present the following…

Always do your own research prior to making any investment/trading decisions. Always assume I am biased with all the ideas presented.

TOT

This is strictly a technical play. Asian markets down almost across the board. TOT has had a very strong gapping run up from ~$58 to ~$61 following a move from ~$52 to ~$58. The volume on the recent move was less than I would have liked to see for a high-probability break out, and if it isn’t going to break out, I expect a break down.

Do

And for your enjoyment…

Do your own research prior to making any investment/trading decisions. Always assume I am biased on a direct and/or indirect level with all ideas presented.

A couple interesting short setups I would like to point out. These are very high risk so do your own research.

I remain of the opinion that we’re looking for a decline in the general market. That being said, check out FUQI and ANR.

FUQI

ANR

UPDATE: found this article which is interesting.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/content/bearish+option+bettors+target+alpha+natural+resources+inc/trading_floor_blog.aspx?ID=95080

Combining my market expectations with the recent runup in these names on relatively muted volume caused me to bring them to your attention.

Do your own research prior to making any investment/trading decisions. Assume that I am biased directly and/or indirectly with every idea.

If you’re going to have a net short position it’s good to have some long exposure in a name you believe has upside potential despite the declining market expectation.

SIGM – Sigma Designs

As of 9/2 the name had ~30% of its float short, according to Bloomberg. This is a massive proportion and the float is relatively small which presents an interesting short squeeze play. It was trading ~370mm market cap with an ~300mm book value with positive earnings. I expect shorts will start covering their positions to take profits as the name has come in from $17 to $14 and change. A good loss exit point would be $13.80 and a profit exit of ~$15 – $16 should be a worthwhile risk/reward opportunity.

Further Disclosure: I have a long position

Always do your own research prior to making any investment/trading decisions. Assume I am biased directly and/or indirectly with all of my ideas.

The general market has been expecting a correction for some time, myself included. On a technical basis we may finally be on the cusp and ready to drop. I use displaced moving averages instead of traditional because in trending markets it effectively and significantly lowers the amount of head fakes. The following chart is of the Nasdaq on a daily basis and shows the major DMA being hit/crossed yesterday and if there is no major rally to the upside by next Tuesday it’s go time. Also, please note that the market’s been struggling to recover following some of the steeper declines and the amount of time and distance of this current rally has been exceptional, much as the prior decline, and should be close to correcting.

Do your own research prior to making any investment/trading decisions. Always assume I am directly and/or indirectly biased with my ideas.

If you’re looking for some short exposure the following names show relatively decent risk/reward setups.

OC – Owens Corning

I would take a loss at $23.25 and take ST profits at $20.50 or LT profits at $17.00.

ECA – EnCana Corporation

Loss exit $54; Profit exit $46

Do your own research prior to making any investment/trading decisions. Always assume I am indirectly and/or directly biased in my recommendations.

Crude oil looks like it’s setting up a nice double top via USO . This one is a fairly straightforward entry/exit play… USO breaks above $40, cut your losses. In addition you could go long UNG (natural gas ETF) at the same time as the ratio mentioned here comes together (hopefully).

One (very risky) way to play an oil short is via DTO. IT IS IMPERATIVE YOU DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH ON THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH LEVERAGED ETF’s PRIOR TO MAKING ANY DECISIONS.

Following is a chart of USO which tracks light, sweet crude oil.

Now DTO

and finally, UNG

No relevance but had to include this…. check out the guy on rollerblades near the end